Scholars Raise alarm over potential impact of upcoming Post-ATMIS Mission in Somalia on regional peace & stability

Addis Ababa, November 27, 2024 (FBC) – International relations experts, approached by Fana Broadcasting Corporate (FBC), have raised alarm over potential negative impacts of upcoming Post-ATMIS Mission in Somalia on regional peace and stability if not managed carefully.

The scholars emphasized the necessity of a thoughtful approach to the imminent deployment of peacekeeping forces in Somalia following the conclusion of the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).

They caution that if not managed effectively, the deployment of the AU Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) could undermine security throughout East Africa.

Scheduled to commence in early 2025, the scholars stress the importance of structuring the troop deployment to reflect the current dynamics of the region. Abdu Mohamed Ali (PhD), a lecturer and researcher in History and International Affairs at Dilla University, criticized the existing structure of the Somali National Army, stating it has faced backlash for lacking equity and proper organization.

Abdu acknowledged ATMIS’s significant role in curbing the spread of Al-Shabaab within Somalia and East Africa, highlighting the mission’s efforts in preventing a broader security crisis. He reiterated that as ATMIS wraps up its mission in early 2025, the planning for its successor must prioritize lasting peace and stability.

He cautioned that the Somali Federal Government’s stance on post-ATMIS deployments risks plunging the region into deeper instability. Abdu urged the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) to influence the Somali government, advocating for decisions that protect regional security.

Additionally, Dechasa Abebe (PhD) from the Center for African Studies and Research at Addis Ababa University emphasized the unprecedented sacrifices made by the Ethiopian military in countering terrorism in Somalia. He expressed concern that the Mogadishu government is overlooking these contributions while engaging with elements opposed to regional peace.

Both scholars agreed that if the forthcoming deployment is mishandled, it could provide a conducive environment for terrorist factions like Al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda to flourish. They called for a meticulous strategy in the post-ATMIS transition, underscoring the need to avoid fostering new tensions that could jeopardize peace and stability in the region, as previously articulated by the Ethiopian government.

By Mikias Ayele