Addis Ababa, November 15, 2024 (FBC) – In an exclusive interview with Fana Broadcasting Corporate, Desalegn Masrie, a senior analyst in international relations and diplomacy, a PhD candidate in peace and security studies and author of the book “The New Frontier of Digital Diplomacy: Virtual Handshakes”, outlined the critical situation in Somalia.
He emphasized the persistent challenges facing the country—socio-economic and political, with Al Shabaab as a significant destabilizing force despite international efforts and some territorial gains against the group.
Desalegn highlighted the government’s dual struggle against insurgency and a fragmented political landscape, noting recent high-profile attacks by Al Shabaab that underscore the Somali government’s limited control over large swathes of territory. He characterized the overall status of peace and stability in Somalia as fragile.
Ethiopia has historically played a crucial role in Somalia’s peacekeeping and stabilizing efforts, so that diplomatic rift between the countries risks alienating Somalia from key regional partners,” he underscored.
“Somalia’s recent alliances with external forces will potentially disrupt regional cooperation and economic integration initiatives within the Horn of Africa. This could lead to economic isolation for Somalia, further destabilizing the country,” Desalegn said.
Desalegn emphasized that Ethiopia is a strong proponent of economic collaboration, regional infrastructure development, and integration efforts in the Horn of Africa. He warned that Somalia’s actions could jeopardize these initiatives, potentially destabilizing the region and obstructing vital projects such as the African Continental Free Trade Area and collaborative infrastructure efforts essential for regional development.
Desalegn stated that Ethiopia’s socio-economic advancements serve as an encouragement for neighboring nations, urging Somalia and other regional countries to acknowledge Ethiopia’s right to access the sea.
Additionally, Somalia’s rejection of Ethiopia’s involvement in the new African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) raises significant concerns about the effectiveness of future peacekeeping efforts to stabilize the country and Somalia’s willingness to cooperate with historical allies, Desalegn explained.
“With over 1.5 million people displaced in 2023, Somalia continues to face humanitarian challenges amidst a fragile political system and economic reliance on remittances,” he said, adding, “This situation presents major challenges for humanitarian assistance, public health, and social cohesion.” He anticipates an increase in internally displaced persons (IDPs) in 2024.
Additionally, he pointed out that Somalia is susceptible to ongoing challenges, including climate change, shifts in global commodity prices, and the persistent conflict with Al Shabaab. He urged the authorities to focus on addressing these critical issues instead of pursuing actions that exacerbate them.
Politically, the federal system in Somalia is facing significant strain, with growing divisions between the federal government and important regions like Jubaland and Puntland, Desalegn noted.
He further asserted that disinformation campaigns from Somali authorities could severely hinder the diplomatic efforts required to foster trust and cooperation between Ethiopia and Somalia.
Desalegn concludes that Somalia’s long-term stability and development hinges on resolving its internal issues and fostering regional cooperation.