Coffee prices may rise 25% in 2025 due to bad harvest in Brazil, Vietnam – Rating Agency

MOSCOW, December 1 (RIA Novosti) – Coffee prices may rise by 25% in 2025, as unfavorable weather conditions will impact the harvest in Brazil and Vietnam, the world leaders in Arabica and Robusta production, Anton Trenin, an expert at the Russian Analytical Credit Rating Agency’s (ACRA) corporate ratings group, told RIA Novosti on Sunday.

“Coffee is not produced in Russia, and this product is completely dependent on imports … If we talk about the median price, the situation will unlikely improve in 2025, and it may be 20-25% higher,” he said.

Total coffee production in the world is divided into 70% Arabica and 30% Robusta, Trenin said.

“Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer and meets about one-third of global demand for Arabica coffee. Drought problems in Brazil continue to put pressure on the market … At the same time, typhoons and rare rains in Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer, are also expected to reduce the coffee harvest,” the ACRA expert added.

The Russian coffee market is fully influenced by foreign supplies and the US dollar exchange rate, which creates additional negative factors impacting the cost of coffee, Trenin said. As a result, Russian consumers will most likely continue to face a significant increase in coffee prices, he added.

The exchange price of coffee beans continued to break multi-year records this week. On Wednesday, the price of January futures for Robusta coffee rose above $5,500 per tonne, the level that has not been seen since at least the beginning of 2008. The price of Arabica rose above $7,300 per tonne, which became a record since 1977. The price of Robusta coffee exceeded $4,000 per tonne for the first time in April and $5,000 in August.